Why on his watch, for the first time ever, we are now spending more on welfare than we earn in income tax?

OBR figures show welfare spending (around £333bn in 2025/26) narrowly overtook income-tax receipts (around £331bn), so the core comparison holds for that year. But 'for the first time ever' is misleading: on the broad welfare measure (which includes the state pension) spending has exceeded income tax in several earlier years, and the OBR expects income tax to move back above welfare in 2026/27.

▸ Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) — Welfare trends report – June 2026 ▸ Institute for Fiscal Studies — What is welfare spending?

Checked Wed 1 Jul, 09:53 · Broadcast: PMQs: Prime Minister's Questions - 29 April 2026

Method note. Verdicts are anchored to the data of the sources cited next to each check, never a judgement on people. When the evidence is not enough, the result is “Unverifiable”; no claim is marked as unconfirmed without a primary source cited. The summary of the fact-checking method is public, and re-examined results go into the corrections log. How we work →

This verdict is digitally signed (Ed25519): anyone can verify its integrity offline with the signature proof →

Verdicts produced by an automated system, with the source cited and a digital signature; re-examined results go into the corrections log.

More fact-checks of “PMQs: Prime Minister's Questions - 29 April 2026”

Imprecise · Can the Prime Minister tell us how many more people are out of work and claiming Universal Credit since he took offic...

True · When they came into power, defense spending was 2.5%, and when they left power, it was 2.3%.

True · This is the Labour government that increased defense spending to the highest sustained spend since the Cold War.

True · Yesterday, we learned that the cost of government borrowing is now the highest in two decades.

All fact-checks of this broadcast → · Verified archive →