{"algorithm":"Ed25519","canonicalization":"JSON con chiavi ordinate (sort_keys), separatori compatti (',' ':'), ensure_ascii","payload":{"verdict_id":274,"claim_id":278,"claim_text":"The Scottish Fiscal Commission warned that Scotland has a £5 billion black hole due to welfare spending being out of control.","label":"impreciso","confidence":0.72,"explanation":"The £5 billion figure appears in IFS Source [1], which reports that the Scottish Fiscal Commission projects an annual 'funding gap' of 'over £5 billion in today's terms' by 2050 — but this is a long-term projection contingent on UK government fiscal decisions, not a current 'black hole.' Furthermore, the SFC's projected gap is not attributed solely or primarily to welfare spending being 'out of control'; Source [1] links it to broader UK spending and tax scenarios. While welfare/disability spending growth is documented (Sources [2], [3], [4]), the claim's framing — a current £5 billion black hole caused by welfare spending being out of control — misrepresents the nature, timing, and cause of the projected shortfall.","sources":[{"url":"https://ifs.org.uk/articles/scottish-fiscal-sustainability-report-immediate-response","ente":"Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS)","titolo":"Scottish Fiscal Sustainability Report – immediate response","estratto":"If the UK government only meets half the projected spending increase through tax rises, the SFC projects an annual 'funding gap' for the Scottish Government equivalent to almost 10% of its budget by 2050 – over £5 billion in today's terms."},{"url":"https://ifs.org.uk/publications/scottish-governments-record-tax-and-benefit-policy-0","ente":"Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS)","titolo":"The Scottish Government's record on tax and benefit policy","estratto":"In total, the Scottish Government has responsibility for funding approximately £6.7 billion of benefit expenditure in 2025–26, of which: £5.3 billion relates to disability benefit spending – where increases in spending have been driven by increased caseloads."}],"issued_at":"2026-07-01T06:14:06+00:00"},"signature_b64":"9xP9dw3VU2wW97fxB+/3SZbbrO9219Kw73+RpiMUzKhxTxQK9mWBIxMG3QlAlvw/kGMLOTjf7m8AZYOdEPx9DQ==","public_key_hex":"1719e2638a2cc0ec8d552d71dca52197f934e0a66b17e6364f1eed7a1d428e01","note":"Verifica offline: ed25519_verify(public_key, base64decode(signature_b64), canonical_json(payload))."}